Work Package 3 (WP3) address Hypothesis 3 (H3) by building scenarios of landscape-scale change within a socio-political and a global context of biodiversity and socio-economic change. The nation-wide landscape-scale prioritization will be embedded hierarchically in global and European scale land system models and into models of novel species assemblages and range shifts that consider multiple trophic levels and invasive alien species. Besides assessing how global trends affect optimization in Denmark, WP3 assess how decisions in Denmark affect biodiversity elsewhere through import/export.

Landscape scale prioritization for long-term sustainable solutions need to account for trade-offs and synergies among SDGs and GCDs from local to global scale

(Hypothesis 3, SustainScapes)

WP3 will address the following overall questions:

• How will optimization for multiple SDGs in a European and global context influence national landscape-scale prioritization of biodiversity and bio-based production?
• How will alternative scenarios of future societal development affect European, nation-wide, and landscape-scale land system change?
• How does future global change alter biodiversity from local to regional scale through potential range shifts and novel assemblage?

WP3 will build distinct scenarios describing the possible trajectories natural and production systems in Denmark and Europe need to take to mitigate global change drivers and achieve the SDGs. Proposed scenarios will consider the possible effects of sustainable and actionable solutions on projected land-use for biodiversity protection and production within the context of the SDGs. WP3 will then generate projections of the changes in biodiversity and land-use and land cover expected by 2100 under the proposed scenarios and considering the current and projected socio-political and environmental realities of Denmark, Europe, and the World. An integral part of WP3 is establishing how European and global priorities in food security and biodiversity protection determine land use prioritization within Denmark. WP3 will also assess how changes in land-use in Denmark could have European and global scale consequences via telecoupling* and the externalization of conservation costs. By taking a scenarios-projections-solution perspective, WP3 goes beyond illustrating the potential impacts of changes as it will define possible paths to solve complex socio-ecological issues emerging from GCDs. WP3 is very ambitious, but feasible as the international co-PIs have developed the global and European modelling frameworks. WP3 will provide the first complete assessment of how global change will affect Danish biodiversity across trophic-levels and habitats.