Abstract:

The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become more strongly influenced by atmospheric and oceanographic processes characteristic of midlatitudes, increasing the prevalence of contaminants and new biological species. This ongoing transition of the Arctic to a new state necessitates systematic monitoring of all sentinels (variables that make an essential contribution to characterizing the Earth’s state) to improve our understanding of the system, enhance forecasting, and support knowledge-based decisions. Here, we describe a sustained multidecadal observation program to be implemented on the Tara Polar Station between 2026 and 2046. The monitoring program is designed as a series of year-long drift expeditions, called Tara Polaris, in the central Arctic Ocean, covering all seasons. The multidisciplinary data will bridge ecological, geochemical, biological, and physical parameters and processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. In addition, data collected with consistent methodologies over a 20-year period will make it possible to distinguish long-term trends from seasonal and interannual variability. In this paper, we discuss specific measurement challenges in each compartment (i.e., atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean) along key sentinels and the most pressing scientific questions to be addressed. The expected outcomes of the Tara Polaris program will enable us to understand and quantify the main feedbacks of the coupled Arctic system, with their seasonal and interannual trends and spatial variability.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2025.00046