Focus 4: How will the Arctic coastal areas function under future ice-free summer conditions?

Focus 4 will target “space-for-time” analysis and modelling of the function of a future fresher and ice-free Arctic.

Theme 4.1 - Going “back to the future” and space-for-time analysis.

CIFAR will build on existing data from one of the few interdisciplinary studies that has quantitatively assessed annual carbon flow through the entire marine ecosystem in the Arctic. Comprehensive studies were made in Daneborg/Zackenberg 30 years ago; revisiting the area now offers the possibility of documenting changes in the present-day ecosystem. This will be combined with space-for-time analysis to predict future changes based on current spatial patterns along our study gradient. 

Theme 4.2 - Develop scenarios for a future fresher and ice-free Arctic.

We will use an advanced ocean-sea ice model to study winter sea ice dynamics, thermodynamics, and brine inclusions, as well as the impacts of ice-free summers, including sea ice decline and freshwater inputs from Arctic rivers, Greenland ice melt, and iceberg discharge. Coupling this model with a biogeochemical model will allow us to analyze changes in phytoplankton productivity under fresher, ice-free conditions. The model spans the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere Atlantic, with boundaries at the Bering Strait and 20°S latitude. Additionally, we will develop conceptual models using complex network analysis to examine feedback loops and their potential reversals in an ice-free Arctic. By incorporating driver interactions and forcing components, we aim to refine models to capture the cascading effects of ice-free conditions, advancing beyond the simple concept of "less ice."