In WP3 we build scenarios of landscape-scale change within a socio-political and global context of biodiversity and socio-economic change. The nation-wide landscape-scale prioritization will be embedded hierarchically in global and European scale land-system models and into models of novel species assemblages and range shifts that consider multiple trophic levels and invasive species. Specifically, we will assess how global trends affect optimization in Denmark as well as how decisions in Denmark affect biodiversity elsewhere through import/export.
We construct specific scenarios describing the possible directions natural and production systems in Denmark and Europe must take to mitigate global change drivers, reach the SDGs and the targets set by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF). Our proposed scenarios consider the possible effects of sustainable and actionable solutions on projected land-use for biodiversity protection and production within the context of the SDGs and targets 2 & 3 of the KM-GBF. Additionally, we generate projections of the changes in biodiversity, land-use and land cover expected by 2100 under the proposed scenarios and consider the current and projected socio-political and environmental realities of Denmark, Europe, and the World.
Our intention with WP3 is to provide a complete assessment of how global change will affect biodiversity across trophic levels and habitats as well as to build an understanding of the possible trajectories that can be taken to alleviate the effects of global change drivers and achieve the SDGs in a global and dynamic context.